NATIONAL COUNCIL OF SYRIA

SEPT 12, 2013

FWD: ELIZABETH O'BAGY TOSSED INTO THE MINEFIELD!!

TO: MEDIA
FROM: ANALYSIS
SUBJ: THE ISW: KAGAN VS O'BAGY

In a world full of think-tank experts, most of whom who have never fired an M-16 or tossed a grenade, it is no surprise that their only claim to victory on the battlefield is who can flash more ivy league credentials. This appears the case in the boot given today of Elizabeth O'Bagy from the so-called "Institute for the Study of War."

KIMBERLY KAGAN (ISW PHOTO)

The ISW's president is Kimberly Kagan, yet another in a long line of Kagans who for some reason have the ears of generals and politicians alike; all of the Kagans belonging to a club of Yale and Georgetown privileged elite who have never issued a command on a radio in a real life combat situation. Some say she is attractive, that is if you have a crush on the school librarian.

So what did O'Bagy do that caused her demise; she lied on her resume? That's deserving of isolation, diminished rations and the firing squad at dawn. But even worse, she issued a report that Secretary Kerry referred to in a Congressional hearing regarding jihadists that have infiltrated the ranks of the Syrian opposition.

O'Bagy stated that the common perception of the opposition full of unemployed Al Qaeda guys from Iraq is simply not true. By the time the Wall Street Journal printed the article and Kerry name-dropped it at the hearings, the word was out that something didn't add up. In fact, it prompted Russia's Putin to call Kerry a "liar", that the opposition was lousy with Qaeda fighters and they were out to rape and pillage Maaloula, a Christian enclave that was just overrun the other day by the rebels.

Putting all of this into context, which translates to the Great Obama Stall of 2013, this big desire to let diplomacy replace cruise missiles in order to stroke Putin; there is little doubt that maybe the ISW is clueless as to what the strategy here really is. But what can anybody expect from the librarian anyway?

Without the opposition's ranks overbloated with Qaeda killers, Assad hasn't a good leg to stand on, Putin is simply irrelevant; the Great Stall to bomb the chemical weapons factories will then have to happen whether the American public likes it or not. President Obama will realize that listening to think-tank strategists who are experts at diplomacy manipulation at the expense of immediately taking the high ground, will cost him a fortune in international credibility.

It is essential for the opposition to be bogged down with Qaeda fighters; this translated into Elizabeth O'Bagy being tossed into the minefield, the first casualty in the Washington, DC battle to get out of taking any action against the ruthless Syrian regime. She had to go, her credentials didn't stack up to those required to be a librarian. The result is Secretary Kerry looks like a bumbling fool and Putin the Russian who saves the day for the White House.

However, as Senator Lindsey Graham repeatedly said on CNN last night, "at the end of the day", the President will probably use the military option. The senator also reminded the panel that there are 35 million Syrians and the prospect of Al Qaeda taking over Syria is completely irrational. That should be some solace for Elizabeth.

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Sept 11, 2013

Threat Reduction 101:

SEPT 10, 2013

Appearing tonight on CNN's Piers Morgan, then again on AC 360; former Iraq weapons inspector for the IAEA, David Kay, elevated the problem of the Russian proposal to a new level.

Certainly, Syria has now admitted to possession of large stockpiles of poison gas weapons and has tacitly agreed to signing on to the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Beyond the hassles expected in the UN Security Council over some resolution, Inspector Kay has brought into focus the actual mechanics of prolonged inspections of the Syrian stockpile.

#1.) The civil war in Syria will make the inspectors' job just short of impossible.
#2.) The only way in is through Beirut and the inspectors will have to bring all of their own gear, including communications.
#3.)The level of obstruction by the government would probably be high in order to prevent the inspectors from seeing something they are not supposed to see.
#4.) The number of inspector boots on the ground would be staggering, probably in the range of 1000 spread out over several years.
#5.) There hasn't even been any effort to determine who these inspectors are or where they would come from; Syria would not trust Western powers to do the job and some third party could not be considered a reliable liaison.
#6.) Even locating and doing an inventory would be beyond the scope of most qualified inspection organizations.

Off the table, David Kay had difficulty with his own superiors when his teams complained of Iraqi deception to prevent the inspectors from getting to the heart of the matter. Apparently, the IAEA bosses shined him on and considered it lack of experience in the field.

There are any number of variables yet to be addressed.

Playing Russian Roulette with Syria

SENATORS SAY NO TO SYRIA MISSILE STRIKE:

OTHER NEWS:

HILLARY SOUNDS OFF ON SYRIA

THE RUSSIAN PROPOSAL

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